The Cholistan Project: Benefits and Concerns

Various measures are being undertaken to stabilise agriculture and the economy in Pakistan, among which the cultivation of barren lands in Cholistan is a significant initiative. This project is a key component of the Pakistan Green Initiative, in which the military has been assigned a pivotal role. Cholistan, which constitutes 26% of Punjab’s total area, has several crucial objectives and reasons behind the efforts to make its barren lands cultivable.

However, the question arises: why are the military and Punjab government so keen on transforming Cholistan’s barren lands into arable fields?

Pakistan’s rapidly growing population, coupled with limited agricultural land, has necessitated the expansion of cultivable areas to meet food demands, ensure food security, and enhance agricultural production. With an estimated population exceeding 230 million and an annual food demand increase of 4%, the plan aims to cultivate 1.6 million hectares of land in Cholistan to boost the production of wheat, cotton, and vegetables, thereby ensuring future food security.

Pakistan also seeks to increase its agricultural exports. By employing modern farming techniques, this initiative aspires to enhance competitiveness in the global market, contributing to economic growth through agricultural modernisation and increased foreign exchange earnings. The military, already engaged in various sectors of the economy, is expected to accelerate agricultural development through its participation in this project.

Cholistan holds strategic importance due to its proximity to the Indian border. The military’s involvement in infrastructure development, such as roads and communication networks, is anticipated to strengthen defence capabilities.

The National Food Security Policy 2018 emphasised the optimal use of agricultural land, and the Pakistan Economic Survey 2022-23 highlighted the necessity of reclaiming unused lands in Cholistan, warning of potential famine due to water shortages. Consequently, proactive measures are essential to mitigate this risk.

The National Security Policy 2022-2026 linked environmental protection to national security. In alignment with this, a detailed report on military-led agricultural projects was published on 15 March 2023 to raise awareness and build consensus on the initiative.

Another objective is to reduce population pressure on Punjab’s fertile regions. From a defence perspective, the desert terrain of Cholistan holds critical importance, making military-led infrastructure development a strategic priority.

The military possesses the organisational capability to implement large-scale projects swiftly. With access to technology, financial resources, and engineering expertise, it is well-positioned to lead this initiative. Additionally, the security-focused approach integrates environmental protection within the broader framework of national security.

New canals are being constructed to improve water availability, yet this move risks exacerbating water distribution conflicts between Punjab and Sindh.

The Green Pakistan Initiative is a national campaign aimed at restoring forests, optimising water resource management, and promoting modern agriculture. Under this initiative, extensive barren lands across the country are being transformed into productive agricultural fields. In Punjab, 4 million acres of land are being leased; however, 70% of local farmers claim they are not receiving fair compensation.

On 15 February, new agricultural projects were launched in Cholistan under the Green Pakistan Initiative. Army Chief General Asim Munir stated that Punjab serves as Pakistan’s agricultural powerhouse, and modern farming methods will benefit the province’s farmers. He further asserted that modern agriculture would transform Punjab into Pakistan’s ‘food basket.’
So, what exactly is the Green Pakistan Initiative, for which urgent and revolutionary measures are being announced?

1. One billion trees will be planted nationwide, with annual afforestation efforts aimed at mitigating climate risks.
2. Water wastage will be reduced by 30% through an advanced management system.
3. Scientific and tested agricultural techniques will be introduced to promote modern farming.
4. Corps commanders will oversee projects at the provincial level. For instance, in Sindh, military engineers will supervise canal construction to prevent provincial disputes. This structured oversight underscores the significant role assigned to the military in this initiative.
5. The military’s disciplined strategy, administrative efficiency, infrastructure, and resource availability enable the execution of large-scale projects. The government believes that military-supervised initiatives will enhance transparency, boosting foreign investors’ confidence and fostering investment.

Military presence in these areas is also expected to reduce security concerns and land-related disputes, addressing issues of land encroachment and law and order.

In Pakistan, the ‘hybrid system’ refers to power-sharing between the civilian government and the military. The military’s increasing involvement in economic sectors, particularly agriculture and tourism, has been reinforced through the Special Investment Facilitation Council (SIFC). The primary goal of the SIFC and the hybrid system is to attract foreign investment. However, these initiatives have faced substantial criticism.

Concerns have been raised regarding direct military intervention in economic and administrative matters alongside the civilian government. The military’s decision-making in land acquisition under the SIFC has been heavily criticised for excluding local farmers from consultations.

The Institute of Policy Studies’ 2023 report on the military’s economic role needs to be considered in this regard. Additionally, the Institute for Regional Media has published a report highlighting the lack of transparency in SIFC operations. The effectiveness of SIFC can be assessed by examining two agreements: one with Qatar Investment Authority (QIA) and another with Saudi Arabia’s ACWA Power. Despite official announcements, these agreements remain unsigned, raising further questions about the initiative’s execution and credibility.

The governments of Sindh and Baluchistan have expressed concerns that the Special Investment Facilitation Council (SIFC) has overlooked provincial autonomy. According to Pakistan’s Federal Board of Revenue’s 2023 statistics, this issue remains unresolved and requires attention. Additionally, in December 2023, the Sindh Assembly passed a resolution against the SIFC.

Several analysts believe that the establishment of this institution is further weakening civilian agencies while increasing military influence over economic decisions, raising concerns about the exclusion of civilian institutions. This concern is reinforced by the fact that six out of the eleven members of the SIFC council are military-affiliated.

The military’s control appears to be strengthening, and decision-making by military officers rather than civilian institutions raises concerns about transparency. The details of these projects are not made publicly available, increasing fears that the rights of local populations may be affected. Local farmers have also been overlooked in the process of leasing land.

The SIFC was established in June 2023 with the aim of facilitating foreign investment, accelerating economic reforms, and initiating development projects in sectors such as agriculture, information technology, and tourism. However, despite its establishment, economic benefits remain uncertain, and significant foreign investment has yet to materialise. Disputes have also arisen over the process of acquiring leased land from provinces.

Bureaucratic hurdles, such as delays in government approvals, have further deepened scepticism about the project. Policy instability due to government changes has hindered the implementation of agreements, creating an impression of uncertainty. Foreign companies have also raised concerns about new tax regulations and related challenges.

Foreign investors, particularly from China and the UAE, have expressed dissatisfaction with Pakistan’s legal and business environment, leading to delays in investment projects. Chinese companies have complained about the lack of implementation of CPEC agreements, and the delay in the Dima Barrage Dam project has resulted in increased losses. A Reuters report on these issues was published in 2023.

Similarly, UAE investment faces objections, particularly regarding the Emirates Group’s solar park project in Punjab, where unresolved tax issues continue to pose risks to investment. In January 2024, Arab News published reports highlighting the concerns of UAE investors, damaging Pakistan’s investment image.

Reactions to agricultural and tourism projects under the SIFC have been mixed across the country. Military-led tourism projects continue, but in Gilgit-Baltistan, some locals have raised objections, fearing these initiatives could displace them and harm their economic interests.

Concerns among farmers in Sindh are growing, as they argue that under the Green Initiative, water usage is being prioritised for Punjab, negatively affecting agricultural communities in Sindh. The construction of canals in Cholistan has further exacerbated tensions, with Sindh farmers claiming that water from the Indus River is being diverted towards Punjab, which they describe as “water theft.”

Sindh contends that due to canal construction in Cholistan, Punjab will utilise 44% of the Indus River’s water, leaving only 10% for Sindh, which violates the provisions of the 1960 Indus Water Treaty. The Sindh government has stated that Punjab’s canal projects breach the Indus Basin Treaty and that recommendations issued by the Sindh Assembly are not being implemented.
Local communities have demanded that their rights be respected and that they be directly involved in decision-making processes. However, the increasing tension between Sindh and Punjab over water distribution raises concerns, as the construction of new canals could further impact Sindh’s water share.

The military’s economic role and criticism of agricultural projects in Pakistan have become highly complex issues. The initiative to make barren lands in Cholistan and other regions cultivable is undoubtedly a positive step for Pakistan’s agricultural development. However, the administrative, political, and environmental aspects of this initiative require further consideration. Ongoing debates over the scope of the SIFC and the military’s economic involvement will continue to pose a significant challenge for Pakistani policymakers.

The military and Punjab government have framed the Cholistan projects as being in the national interest, while critics argue that these initiatives are escalating provincial conflicts. The involvement of the military in institutions like the SIFC is perceived as undermining the autonomy of the civilian government. For these projects to succeed in the future, transparency, protection of local rights, and inter-provincial harmony will be essential.

These details are based on Pakistani media reports, official documents, and international publications. For further research, references such as the Pakistan Economic Survey 2023-24 and reports by the Institute of Strategic Studies Islamabad can be consulted.