US Sanctions and Pakistan’s Domestic Missile Program

In a statement issued by the US State Department, it was announced that sanctions have been imposed on four Pakistani entities under an executive order, citing concerns over the development and proliferation risks associated with Pakistan’s long-range missile programme. The United States’ series of sanctions on entities and suppliers related to Pakistan’s ballistic missile programme shows no signs of abating. This year, for the third time, further sanctions have been placed on four entities accused of aiding the development of ballistic missiles.

On Wednesday, the US imposed sanctions on four entities allegedly connected to Pakistan’s nuclear-capable long-range ballistic missile programme, including a state-run organisation overseeing the programme. The US has accused the National Development Complex (NDC), based in Islamabad, of acquiring various equipment for Pakistan’s long-range ballistic missile programme. This includes specialised vehicle chassis used for missile launching equipment and testing purposes. The NDC is involved in the development of Pakistan’s ballistic missiles, including the Shaheen series.

The statement further disclosed that Akhtar & Sons Private Limited, based in Karachi, supplied equipment to the NDC for Pakistan’s long-range ballistic missile programme. Additionally, Filiates International, also based in Karachi, has been accused of facilitating the procurement of missile-related materials for the NDC and other entities to support the ballistic missile programme.

Addressing the Allegations: Technical, Strategic, and Economic Perspectives

These recent allegations by U.S. officials are not aligned with technical realities. The issue can be examined through three lenses: technical, strategic, and economic.

Technical Perspective

It is technically implausible that Pakistan’s advancements in ballistic missiles are aimed beyond India. The primary objective of these developments is to counter India’s rapidly advancing missile defence systems, not to target distant nations. Modern missile capabilities aim to neutralise even the most sophisticated defence systems. Israel’s five-layer defence system, including the Arrow, Iron Dome, David’s Sling, interceptors, and anti-aircraft guns, is a pertinent example.

For a missile to penetrate such defences, it requires technologies like Multiple Independently Targetable Reentry Vehicles (MIRVs), as found in Pakistan’s Ababeel missile. MIRVs allow a single missile to carry multiple warheads, each independently programmed to strike different targets. This capability ensures that a single launch can overcome complex defence systems.

The United States possesses similar technology in its Minuteman III missile, while India has recently begun developing MIRV capabilities. Pakistan’s focus on such advancements is clearly aimed at neutralising India’s defence systems, such as the S-400. Unlike India, which has developed and tested Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs) with ranges exceeding 5,000 kilometres, Pakistan has not conducted any tests of such missiles.

Strategic Perspective

Allegations against Pakistan also ignore the strategic reality that missile capabilities cannot be attributed without testing. Pakistan has never tested a missile with a range beyond India. Meanwhile, India is developing nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs) like the Arihant and Arighat, which enable underwater missile launches. These submarines bypass the range limitation of land-based missiles, allowing India to target any country, including the United States, from nearby waters.

Economic and Political Perspective

Economically and politically, it is implausible for Pakistan to pursue missile capabilities aimed at the United States. The United States is Pakistan’s largest export market, accounting for approximately $6 billion annually. Moreover, the Pakistani diaspora in the United States sends significant remittances back home. Pakistan also relies on maintaining goodwill with the United States for economic assistance, including through institutions like the IMF. Strengthening relations with the U.S. is a core tenet of Pakistan’s foreign policy and national security strategy.

While it is possible that Pakistan’s National Defence Complex (NDC) is developing an advanced version of the Ababeel missile system, designed to defeat Indian ballistic missile defence shields and carry multiple warheads, this remains a regionally focused initiative. The development of more powerful rockets for this purpose does not equate to the creation of ICBMs. Converting these systems into true intercontinental missiles would require an entirely new infrastructure and technology.

Criticism of Pakistan’s defensive capabilities and the expression of doubts about its intentions indicate how New Delhi is using its influence to shape Washington’s narrative. The goal is to weaken Pakistan’s defensive posture in the face of India’s growing military and strategic capabilities.

The US State Department stated that sanctions are being imposed on the National Development Complex (NDC) and three firms involved in the production and supply of equipment for weapons of mass destruction. The four sanctioned entities include the NDC, Akhtar & Sons Private Limited, Filiates International, and Rockside Enterprises. Earlier this year, in September, the US imposed sanctions on a Chinese research institute and several companies accused of supplying equipment and technology to Pakistan’s ballistic missile programme.

Similarly, in April this year, the US imposed sanctions on three Chinese companies and one Belarusian company. In October 2023, three more Chinese companies were sanctioned for allegedly providing components and equipment to Pakistan’s ballistic missile programme. In December 2021, the US administration-imposed sanctions on 13 Pakistani companies for allegedly aiding Pakistan’s nuclear and missile programmes. Pakistan, however, termed these measures as “disappointing,” arguing that the recent sanctions are intended to exacerbate military imbalances in the region.

My columns published on 6 October 2024, titled “Impact of US Sanctions: China’s and Pakistan’s Response,” and 14 November 2024, “Nuclear Pakistan: The Real Challenge to US and Israeli Interests,” provide further insights into this matter.

The recent US sanctions are not unprecedented; this pattern dates back to the 1970s when Pakistan initiated its missile programme in response to India’s missile development efforts, which were supported by Russia and other sources. Pakistan has consistently maintained close ties with China. These sanctions on Chinese and Pakistani entities are unlikely to have any significant impact, as Pakistani organisations like the NDC do not rely on the West for missile technologies.

North Korea, despite numerous sanctions, has remained unaffected. Similarly, Pakistan’s missile programme, which is entirely indigenous and relies on local resources and expertise, will remain unaffected by these sanctions. However, such measures are regrettable and fail to account for regional strategic realities, such as the need to safeguard Pakistan’s security against India’s growing intercontinental missile capabilities, which pose increasing threats to regional and global peace, security, and stability. Meanwhile, those seeking refuge under the US umbrella, particularly certain elements in Israel and India, remain immune to such sanctions.

The US’s unilateral actions, driven by prejudice and bias, are unfortunate for global peace. Pakistan’s strategic capabilities aim to defend the nation’s sovereignty and maintain peace in South Asia. The recent sanctions are intended to destabilise military cooperation in the region, undermining efforts towards peace and security. Furthermore, targeting private businesses with such sanctions is disheartening. Despite claims of promoting non-proliferation, licences for advanced military technology acquisitions have been waived for other nations. Such double standards and discriminatory practices not only undermine the non-proliferation agenda but also risk jeopardising regional and global peace and security.

It is noteworthy that in September this year, under the Arms Export Control Act (AECA) and the Export Control Reform Act (ECRA), the US imposed sanctions on three Chinese entities, a Chinese individual, and a Pakistani organisation for alleged involvement in activities related to the proliferation of ballistic missiles. The US accused the Beijing Research Institute of Automation for Machinery Building Industry (RIAMB) of aiding the development and delivery of weapons of mass destruction. It was also claimed that RIAMB collaborated with Pakistan’s National Development Complex (NDC) to procure equipment for testing rocket motors for the Shaheen-III and Ababeel missile systems, and potentially larger systems.

The United States also alleged in its statement that the entity was involved in procuring equipment for large systems. Among the companies subjected to sanctions at that time were China’s Hubei Huachangda Intelligent Equipment, Universal Enterprise, Xi’an Longde Technology Development, and the Pakistani company Innovative Equipment. Additionally, a Chinese individual named Luo Dongmei was also sanctioned.

At the time, the U.S. State Department noted that its concerns about Pakistan’s long-range ballistic missile programme had been “clear and consistent for many years” and that opposing Pakistan’s ballistic missile programme had been a longstanding component of U.S. policy. It is worth recalling that earlier this year, in April, the U.S. sanctioned three Chinese and one Belarusian company, and in October 2023, imposed similar sanctions on three more Chinese companies for allegedly supplying components and equipment for Pakistan’s ballistic missile programme. Additionally, in December 2021, the U.S. administration sanctioned 13 Pakistani companies for allegedly assisting Pakistan’s nuclear and missile programmes.

Let us explore Pakistan’s missile programme, which has been targeted by recent U.S. sanctions. What does it include, and what are the U.S. concerns? How might these sanctions impact Pakistan’s missile capabilities?

The Pakistani missile programme referred to in the U.S. State Department’s September 2024 announcement includes medium-range ballistic missiles such as the Shaheen-III and Ababeel. These are classified as Multiple Reentry Vehicle (MRV) missiles. Experts believe these are among the most advanced weapons in Pakistan’s missile arsenal. According to Pakistan’s Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR), Pakistan first tested the Ababeel missile in 2017 and conducted another test of a new variant on 18 October 2023. The missile was showcased for the first time during the Pakistan Day Parade on 23 March 2024.

Experts in strategic and defence studies note that this is South Asia’s first missile capable of carrying multiple warheads, including nuclear weapons, over a range of 2,200 kilometres, targeting multiple objectives. Analysts estimate that the Ababeel missile can carry three or more nuclear warheads. It is designed as an MRV missile system to counter and neutralise enemy ballistic missile defence shields.

Each warhead on the Ababeel missile can independently target multiple objectives. A key feature of this missile is its ability to carry out a first or second strike against high-value targets protected by ballistic missile defence (BMD) shields. Defence experts explain that MRV missiles are capable of confusing missile defence shields or ballistic missile systems in their vicinity by using evasive maneuvers, akin to how a fast bowler in cricket uses swing and seam to break through a batsman’s defences.

The Ababeel’s design enables it to launch several independently programmed warheads, each following its unique flight path. This capability is particularly valuable against protected targets.

India has been working on its ballistic missile system for more than a decade, conducting tests and publicly discussing its advancements. Recently, India tested its first MRV missile, the Agni-V, which can carry multiple warheads. It is an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) with a range of 5,000–8,000 kilometres, far exceeding the Ababeel’s range of 2,200 kilometres, which makes the Ababeel one of the shortest-range MRVs globally. There are unverified reports that India’s Agni-P missile, with a range of 2,000 kilometres, also has MRV capabilities.

The Ababeel is explicitly designed to counter India’s capabilities, but the U.S. has expressed concerns about the Shaheen-III missile since 2021. The Shaheen-III has a range of 2,740 kilometres and is considered the predecessor to the Ababeel. At the time of the Shaheen-III’s test, Lieutenant General (Retd) Khalid Ahmed Kidwai, advisor to Pakistan’s National Command Authority, stated, “This missile has been developed solely to counter India, targeting strategic locations in India—particularly the Andaman and Nicobar Islands and the eastern regions where India is constructing nuclear submarine bases. This ensures that India has no safe havens to hide its systems for a counterstrike or first strike.”

It is important to note that Indian officials, including Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, have made statements suggesting that India has acquired capabilities enabling it to conduct preemptive strikes against Pakistan. Examples include the supersonic BrahMos missile, which is equipped with both conventional and nuclear capabilities, and India’s ongoing development of systems capable of launching first strikes from land, air, and sea.

BrahMos Incident and Concerns About Pakistan’s Missile Programme

In 2022, a BrahMos missile inadvertently landed in Pakistan. The Indian Ministry of Defence attributed the incident to an accidental firing from Indian territory. India could potentially use the BrahMos missile for a conventional counterforce (first) strike against Pakistan’s strategic forces and command-and-control systems. Subsequently, India might claim it was a conventional attack. However, such a strike would be perceived by Pakistan as the first nuclear attack.

This scenario underscores the necessity for Pakistan to remain prepared to deter any aggression. For this reason, Pakistan developed and showcased nuclear-capable missiles like Shaheen-III and Ababeel. These capabilities serve to demonstrate Pakistan’s readiness and serve as a deterrent. Pakistan’s missile advancements are a defensive response to Indian developments, but why does the United States find these missiles concerning?

US Concerns About Pakistan’s Missiles

The US Department of State accused RIA MB of collaborating with Pakistan in testing and procuring equipment for diameter rocket motors for Shaheen-III and Ababeel missile systems and potentially even larger systems. The reference to “potentially larger systems” suggests work on the next generation of these missiles.

The first test of the Ababeel missile occurred in January 2017, with a subsequent test taking place six years later, in October 2023. During these six years, continuous work was carried out on this technology within Pakistan’s National Defence Complex (NDC). While Shaheen-III was already operational, the second test of Ababeel and its public display in March 2024 indicated Pakistan’s advancement to the operational stage.

This progression heightened US concerns, as it suggests Pakistan is potentially working on more advanced versions of these systems. Additionally, the Ababeel’s three-stage missile system and mobile launcher capability allow it to be camouflaged and deployed in locations where they are difficult for adversaries to detect.

Missile Technology Developments and US Reactions

US concerns extend to the development of more powerful rocket motors, which could enhance Ababeel’s range and capabilities. There are fears that Pakistan’s space programme might support military objectives, enabling the development of intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) capabilities.

In April, the US imposed restrictions on systems related to mobile launchers and large rocket motors. A US fact sheet accused Belarus-based Minsk Wheeled Tractor Plant of supplying specialised vehicle chassis for Pakistan’s ballistic missile programme. Moreover, China’s Granpact Company was alleged to have provided equipment aiding Pakistan’s rocket motor testing.

Double Standards in Missile Proliferation

While the US imposes restrictions on Pakistan’s missile programme, it overlooks India’s developments, which benefit from collaborations with Russia and the West. For instance, India’s BrahMos missile programme initially had a range of 290 kilometres, but it has since been extended to 800 kilometres, with work underway on a hypersonic version. Similarly, India’s Agni-V missile has a range of 5,000–8,000 kilometres and can carry multiple warheads.

Despite India’s aggressive advancements, the US has embraced India as a key ally within the QUAD framework. This strategic partnership, along with India’s economic strength and influence in global think tanks, shapes Western perceptions and policies.

Geostrategic Factors and China’s Influence

US restrictions on Pakistan’s missile programme are largely aimed at China. Pakistan’s collaboration with Chinese firms is a focal point of American scrutiny. However, China and Pakistan’s cooperative efforts comply with international norms, even though neither is a signatory to the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR).

The US also aims to counter China’s growing influence in South Asia, as part of its broader geostrategic objectives involving Ukraine, the Middle East, and Taiwan. Imposing restrictions on Pakistan’s missile capabilities is part of this strategy to pressure Beijing economically and geopolitically.

The Role of U.S.-India Relations

The Biden administration appears heavily influenced by India, with growing Indian influence in U.S. policymaking circles evident. India seems to be leveraging Washington’s pressure to curtail Pakistan’s defensive capabilities. These concerns align with efforts by the Indian lobby in Washington to exploit the perceived weakness of the Biden administration during its final years.

Conclusion: Pakistan’s Defence Program Is India-Specific

It remains unlikely that Pakistan would develop the capability to target the United States, either now or in the future. Pakistan’s missile and nuclear programmes are tailored specifically to counter Indian threats. Pakistan is not participating in an arms race and maintains its focus on regional stability. By highlighting technical, strategic, and economic realities, it becomes clear that the allegations against Pakistan lack merit and are influenced by regional and political biases. Any advancements in Pakistan’s defence capabilities are a response to India’s evolving systems and not a threat to the United States or the broader international community.