Iran’s Internal and External Challenges: A Complex Situation

When Kufa was once again conquered, he was presented before the famous cultural leader, Saab ibn Zubair, who issued a decree: Celebrate, the enemy of Islam has been killed. An old man sitting in the court smiled, and Saab asked with great anger: Why are you laughing, old man? The old man said: The past is remembered, the present is in front of you, the future is half visible. Musab ordered him to explain his case in detail. The elder said: Can you hear? Then when the old man began to speak, the door and the wall shook:

This was the court. Ubaidullah Ibn Ziyad was sitting on the throne. The head of Husayn Ibn Ali was brought. Ibn Ziyad said: Celebrate, the enemy of Islam has been killed. We celebrated. Once again, this was the court. The head of Mukhtar Saqfi, whose head is lying at your feet, was sitting on the same throne where you are sitting at this time. When Ibn Ziyad’s head was brought, Mukhtar Saqfi issued an order: Celebrate, the enemy of Islam has been killed. We celebrated. Today, this is the same court, and you are sitting on the same throne. The head of Mukhtar Saqafi has been brought. Your order is: Celebrate, the enemy of Islam has been killed. We will celebrate today too. Tomorrow the same court will be there too, it is not known who will be sitting on the throne, but we know that your head will be there and the decree will be issued, celebrate, the enemy of Islam has been killed and we will celebrate.

Exactly as the old man had predicted, the head of Mus’ab bin Zubair was presented to Abdul Malik bin Marwan in the court of Kufa and he ordered a celebration. When someone mentioned the old man’s words to Abdul Malik bin Marwan, Abdul Malik bin Marwan immediately ordered the court building to be demolished and the court to be built in a remote area of ​​Kufa, but incidents are still happening.

After Bashar al-Assad’s Removal from Power in Syria

History is repeating itself once again, but this time Damascus has been chosen instead of Kufa. After Bashar al-Assad was ousted from power, the distorted photos of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, Qassem Soleimani, and former Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in the Iranian embassy in Damascus are a reminder of how Iran has suffered one loss after another and how a revolution is truly taking place in Syria. On the floor of the Iranian embassy in Damascus, among the broken glass and pieces of the Iranian flag, torn posters with pictures of Iran’s Supreme Leader and other leaders are also scattered, and everyone is trampling them underfoot. Dozens of similar photos that were considered worthy of determination, courage, and respect until yesterday, are now presenting scenes that are instructive.

The turquoise tiles of the Iranian Embassy remain intact, but the large, defaced image of Qasem Soleimani, a highly influential former military commander of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards who was assassinated under orders from US President Donald Trump, dominates the scene. These defaced images are a stark reminder of Iran’s successive setbacks in Syria.

At a time when Iran is licking its wounds and facing the potential of another Trump presidency, the question arises: Will the country adopt an even more hardline policy, or will it initiate new negotiations with Western powers? Moreover, how strong is the Iranian government at present?

Following Bashar al-Assad’s ousting, the Supreme Leader, despite facing a clear defeat, adopted a defiant tone in his address. The 85-year-old Ayatollah Khamenei, who has held Iran’s reins since 1989, now faces the additional challenge of appointing a successor. In his speech, he declared, “Iran is strong and powerful, and it will only grow stronger.” He emphasised that Iran’s support for the “Axis of Resistance” – an alliance comprising Hamas, Hezbollah, Yemen’s Houthis, and Iraqi Shia groups – would emerge even more resolutely against Israel. “The more pressure you apply, the more this resistance will grow. The more crimes you commit, the stronger this resistance will become. The more you fight us, the wider this battle will spread.”

However, the events following Hamas’s 7th October 2023 attack on Israel – whether or not directly supported by Iran but certainly praised by Tehran – have shaken the Iranian regime. Israel’s retaliatory actions against its adversaries have reshaped the Middle Eastern landscape, leaving Iran conspicuously absent. According to James Jeffrey, a former US diplomat and expert at the Wilson Centre, “All members of the Axis of Resistance are now losing. Iran’s axis has been crushed by Israel, and following regime change in Syria, it is fragmenting further. Aside from Yemen’s Houthis, Iran has no clear path forward in the region.”

While Iran still backs powerful armed Shia groups in neighbouring Iraq, Jeffrey asserts that “the recent events have significantly eroded Iranian dominance in the region.”

Bashar al-Assad was last seen in public on 1st December alongside Iran’s Foreign Minister, pledging to confront the rebels advancing toward the Syrian capital. However, after the collapse of his government, Assad is now reportedly taking refuge in Russia. Iran’s ambassador to Syria, Hossein Akbari, once presented Assad as a leading figure of the Axis of Resistance. Yet, as Assad’s rule came to an end, Iran found itself unable to intervene effectively. Within days, one of the most prominent names of the Axis of Resistance was wiped from the list.

Iran spent decades establishing a network of armed groups across the region to maintain its influence and challenge Israel. This strategy dates back to 1979. After the Iran-Iraq war, Bashar al-Assad’s father, Hafez al-Assad, also extended support to Iran. The alliance between Syria’s Assad family (from the Alawite sect) and Iran’s Shia clerics strengthened Tehran’s power in a predominantly Sunni Middle East. Syria served as a vital supply route for Iran to support its allies in Lebanon, particularly Hezbollah, and other armed groups in the region.

Iran had previously come to Bashar al-Assad’s aid. When an uprising began against Assad in 2011, Iran provided fighters, fuel, and weapons. Over 2,000 Iranian soldiers and generals were killed while serving as military advisers. According to credible sources, Iran has spent $30 to $50 billion since 2011. However, Iran’s supply line to Lebanon’s Hezbollah and other groups has now been severed.

The Axis of Resistance was designed as a network that would serve as a strategic asset for Iran, ensuring Tehran’s safety from any direct attack. Yet, this strategy has now clearly failed.

Iran’s Limited Prospects Following the Fall of Bashar al-Assad’s Government in Syria

The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s government in Syria has significantly restricted Iran’s ability to advance its regional agenda. Over recent years, Tehran’s military capabilities have appeared increasingly vulnerable, especially in direct confrontations with Israel. In October, when Iran launched ballistic missiles at Israel, most were intercepted and rendered ineffective, although some caused damage to Israeli airbases. Israel’s retaliatory strikes inflicted severe damage on Iran’s air defence systems and missile production infrastructure. James Jeffrey noted, “The missile threat turned out to be nothing but a paper tiger.” Similarly, the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran in July further humiliated Iran.

Iran’s foremost priority remains ensuring its survival. In response to these setbacks, Tehran is expected to focus on repositioning itself, reinforcing what remains of the Axis of Resistance, and rebuilding its regional alliances to counter the pressure anticipated from the newly elected US President, Donald Trump.

Dennis Horak, who spent three years as Canada’s chargé d’affaires in Iran, describes the Iranian regime as “a government of strong nerves with powerful centres of influence, capable of taking risks.” He further noted that Iran retains substantial combat capabilities, which it could use against Gulf Arab states in the event of a conflict with Israel. However, Horak cautioned that it would be a mistake to dismiss Iran as merely a “paper tiger.”

Globally, Iran’s position has weakened significantly. It now faces the unpredictable leadership of Donald Trump, who is soon to assume office as the US President, and must reckon with Israel’s proven ability to strategically target its adversaries.

Iran is likely to revise its Defence Doctrine, which has historically relied heavily on the Axis of Resistance. Furthermore, Tehran will reassess its nuclear programme, determining the necessary investments to bolster its broader security. While Iran insists that its nuclear programme serves peaceful purposes, the Trump administration unilaterally withdrew from the 2015 nuclear deal during its first term. That agreement saw Iran limit its nuclear activities in exchange for relief from economic sanctions.

Under the 2015 deal, Iran was permitted to enrich uranium up to 3.67%, a level suitable for nuclear energy production. However, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) now reports that Iran has escalated enrichment to 60% in retaliation to US sanctions. Although 90% enrichment is required for a nuclear weapon, IAEA Director-General Rafael Grossi suggests that Iran’s current actions may be a response to its recent regional setbacks.

Darya Dolzikov, a nuclear proliferation expert at the Royal United Services Institute, describes the situation as “deeply concerning,” stating that “Iran’s nuclear programme is now in an entirely different place compared to 2015.”

Experts estimate that Iran could produce weapons-grade uranium within a week, but it would still need several months—possibly up to a year—to develop a deliverable nuclear warhead. Dolzikov remarked, “We do not know precisely how close Iran is to acquiring nuclear weapons. However, the knowledge they now possess will be extremely difficult to roll back.”

Western nations remain deeply alarmed. Dr Raz Zimmt, a senior researcher at Tel Aviv University’s Institute for National Security Studies, noted, “It is clear that Trump will maintain maximum pressure on Iran.” However, she added, “I believe he will also open channels for negotiations to persuade Iran to scale back its nuclear programme.”

Israel’s Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, has long advocated for regime change in Iran. However, Dr Zimmt believes that Israel will wait to see Trump’s approach and Iran’s response. A full-scale war appears unlikely. Nasser Hadian, a political science professor at Tehran University, stated, “I believe Trump, as a businessman, will seek dialogue with Iran and attempt to negotiate a deal.”

If negotiations fail, Trump is likely to intensify pressure to bring Iran to the table. Hadian warned, “While a deal is more probable than war, increasing pressure could lead to instability and unintended conflict, a scenario no one desires.”

Domestically, Iran faces significant challenges. Tehran must navigate the selection of a new Supreme Leader. Ayatollah Khamenei, now focused on his legacy, will aim to ensure a smooth transition of power that maintains stability. The government was severely shaken by the nationwide protests in 2022, which were sparked by the death of Mahsa Amini—a young woman allegedly killed for not adhering to Iran’s strict dress code. These demonstrations directly challenged the legitimacy of Iran’s clerical establishment and were ultimately suppressed through brute force.

As Iran grapples with regional setbacks, economic challenges, and internal unrest, its leadership faces the daunting task of maintaining stability while preparing to confront the Trump administration’s anticipated pressure.

There is widespread anger within the country that while Iran is spending heavily abroad, no significant steps are being taken to address the unemployment and inflation that Iranian citizens are facing. Particularly, Iran’s younger generation is increasingly detached from the Islamic Revolution. The majority of them question government restrictions. Despite the risk of arrest, women continue to go out without veils every day, defying government actions. Observers of Iran say that despite all of this, there is no immediate prospect of a change in government in Iran, similar to what happened in Syria.

James Jeffrey states, “I don’t think the Iranian people will rise again because Iran has lost its empire, which was very unpopular.” According to Dennis Horak, tolerance for dissenting voices in Iran will further diminish as the government now focuses on internal security. Legislation to impose stricter punishments for women who do not wear the veil is also expected soon. However, in his view, the Iranian government is not currently in danger. “Even if millions of Iranians do not support this government, there are millions who do. I don’t believe this government will fall anytime soon.”

If we consider the anger within the country and also look at the damage Iran has suffered in Syria, it can be said that Iran’s rulers are certainly facing a complex situation. In these difficult circumstances, will Iran stop supporting elements in its neighboring countries, which has led to significant complaints from those countries against Iran? Certainly, Iran’s need for the support of its neighbours is greater now than it has ever been before.

پڑوسی کے مکاں میں چھت نہیں ہے

مکاں اپنے بہت اونچے نہ رکھنا

In the neighbour’s house, there is no roof,
Do not keep your house too high.