Is American Global Supremacy at Risk?

After U.S. President Donald Trump sent a letter inviting Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, to negotiations, China, Russia, and Iran announced joint military exercises near Chabahar, titled “Guardian of Peace 2024.” These drills mark a significant turning point in global politics, potentially reshaping the balance of power in the Middle East. Azerbaijan, South Africa, Pakistan, Qatar, Iraq, and the UAE will participate as observers.

The timing of these exercises is crucial, as the U.S. and Israel have repeatedly threatened Iran in recent months, warning that a military strike could be imminent if its nuclear programme is not halted. The increasing U.S. sanctions and diplomatic pressure further reflect this tension. However, these military drills indicate that Iran is strengthening its regional position with the support of China and Russia. Donald Trump confirmed that he had written to Ayatollah Khamenei in an effort to initiate dialogue, but Iran’s leadership responded with strong resistance rather than taking the offer seriously.

Although the U.S. has intensified economic sanctions on Iran, Trump’s rhetoric appears somewhat softer. One possible reason is that the U.S. seeks to bring Iran to the negotiating table, but Tehran remains committed to a strategy of resistance. Iran’s growing ties with China and Russia present a direct challenge to American influence in the region.

Chabahar Port holds particular strategic importance as part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative, which not only balances U.S. influence in the Middle East and the Indian Ocean but also serves as a key pillar of China’s economic expansion. Therefore, the joint military exercises near Chabahar send a dual message—acting as a response to Trump’s letter while showcasing Iran’s strengthened position alongside its allies. Additionally, these drills could be seen as part of Trump’s attempt to pressure Iran into nuclear negotiations.

On 15 June 2024, Iran’s Ministry of Defence reaffirmed its commitment to national interests, declaring that there would be no compromise on its nuclear programme. Meanwhile, China’s state-run Global Times asserted that these military exercises were not aimed at any specific country but were intended to enhance Iran’s defensive capabilities.

It is worth noting that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu recently threatened an immediate strike on Iran’s nuclear sites, while Trump, during his election campaign, had declared that Israel should eliminate Iran entirely. The U.S. has also imposed new restrictions on Iran’s oil exports. These exercises may serve as a warning, demonstrating that Iran feels secure with the backing of Russia and China and is fully prepared to defend key maritime routes, such as the Strait of Hormuz and Chabahar.

Amid these developments, Trump, pursuing his hidden agenda, wrote to Ayatollah Khamenei, urging Iran to rejoin the 2015 nuclear agreement (JCPOA). However, Khamenei dismissed the letter as another U.S. deception, stating that America could not be trusted.

Furthermore, Khamenei criticised Europe, calling it shameless, blind, and a puppet of the U.S., arguing that the European Union had failed to honour its commitments under the nuclear deal due to fear of U.S. sanctions. Instead, Europe imposed trade restrictions on Iran, causing severe economic damage. Iran has been subjected to over 50 sanctions in recent years, targeting its oil and banking sectors.
Trump offered economic incentives in exchange for limiting Iran’s nuclear programme, suggesting that preventing Iran from becoming a nuclear power would help avoid further military escalation in the region. However, this raises the question: why does Trump not make the same demand of Israel? Why does the U.S. maintain this double standard with both countries?

The U.S. believes that, despite Iran’s long-standing resistance, the forces supporting it have been weakened. Former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, once backed by Iran, has sought refuge in Russia after Syria’s economic devastation, and the new Syrian government has distanced itself from Iranian influence, improving relations with other Arab states and Turkey.
Likewise, following Hezbollah’s setbacks in Lebanon, Israel now feels somewhat more secure.

However, Washington and Tel Aviv remain concerned that Iran is still working to expand its regional influence through Yemen’s Houthis, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and Shia militias in Iraq.
The U.S. and its allies suspect that, following its military struggles in Syria, Iran is now pursuing a new strategy to consolidate its axis of resistance. These military drills are part of that strategy, positioning Iran as a formidable regional power. If successful, this could grant Iran a stronger standing in global politics.

On 15 June 2024, Iran’s Ministry of Defence, in a press conference, provided details regarding the military exercises, stating that the primary objective was to assess the joint response capabilities against maritime piracy and terrorism in the Indian Ocean and the Gulf of Oman. These exercises featured the participation of naval vessels and air force units from Iran, Russia, and China. Furthermore, Iran showcased its Zulfiqar and Qader missile systems.

Iranian Defence Minister Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Ashtiani emphasised that these drills conveyed a strong message against the intervention of imperialist forces (the US) in the region. Iranian Navy Commander Admiral Shahram Irani underlined that the protection of Chabahar Port is an integral part of national security. In a separate statement, the United States was warned that the establishment of foreign military bases in the region would be deemed unacceptable.

Meanwhile, China’s state-owned media organisation, Global Times, published an analytical article in June 2024 highlighting the significance of these exercises. It was asserted that Chabahar is a vital component of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), connecting China with the Middle East, Africa, and Europe. China views these drills as essential for safeguarding this crucial economic project. Analyst Wang Xiu described the manoeuvres as a reflection of China’s ‘non-combat security’ policy. The article also accused the US Navy of being a threat to regional stability, particularly in the Strait of Hormuz. Chinese defence expert Li Zhou stated that the growing military cooperation between Russia and China is a countermeasure against Western sanctions, reinforcing the concept of ‘collective security’.

For Iran, these exercises are a crucial demonstration of its national security strategy against potential US interventions, reinforcing its regional strength and signalling its preparedness to safeguard its sovereignty.

Trump’s inclination towards Russia is being viewed from various perspectives in global politics. Some analysts argue that it is a calculated strategy aimed at creating divisions between China and Russia, thereby giving the US a diplomatic advantage. Over the past decade, Russia and China have strengthened their economic and military cooperation, which the US perceives as a threat to its global dominance. Trump’s lenient approach towards Russia, including pressuring NATO allies and easing certain sanctions, might be part of this broader strategy.

On the other hand, some experts believe that Trump’s foreign policy deviates from traditional US strategies, as he attempts to establish new alliances while disregarding long-standing hostilities. However, this approach is causing a rift in US-Europe relations, potentially altering the global balance of power.

Trump’s ‘Putin-like mindset’ and unilateral foreign policy decisions raise questions about the future of the Western world order. Since World War II, the US and Europe have maintained a global system through institutions such as NATO, the United Nations, the World Bank, and the IMF. Trump’s policies have challenged the credibility of these institutions.

With increasing divisions between the US and European nations, internal discord within NATO, and the US withdrawal from multilateral agreements such as the Paris Climate Accord and the Iran Nuclear Deal, it appears that America is distancing itself from the Western-led global system. This shift presents China and Russia with an opportunity to strengthen their global standing.

If this trend continues, the Western world order may weaken, paving the way for a new political and economic equilibrium where US influence is significantly reduced.

The diplomatic tensions between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky during their meeting have further stirred the geopolitical landscape. The strained relations between the US and Ukraine could have profound implications for the region.

The ongoing war in Ukraine and the negotiations between the US and Russia in Saudi Arabia mark a significant development. These talks indicate a willingness from both sides to pursue diplomatic resolutions, although the outcomes remain uncertain.

The joint military exercises conducted by China, Russia, and Iran are not only pivotal for the Middle East but also have far-reaching implications for global politics. For the US and Israel, these drills serve as a clear message that, instead of being weakened, Iran is reinforcing its strategic position in the region. The exercises highlight that despite unilateral US sanctions and military pressures, the Iran-China-Russia alliance is emerging as a new geopolitical reality.
In summary, these military exercises are a strategic response to US pressure, aimed at strengthening regional alliances and countering Western dominance. They are also intended to ensure the success of the Belt and Road Initiative and promote a non-Western global alliance. Ultimately, these drills convey a collective message from regional powers to the US and NATO that any future intervention will come with significant consequences.