Impact of American Sanctions: Response from China and Pakistan

The enemy missile defense system can be defeated by MIRV (Multiple Independently Targetable Reentry Vehicle) missiles, which contain multiple warheads capable of striking different targets simultaneously. In contrast, MARV (Maneuverable Reentry Vehicle) missiles have only one warhead but possess the ability to change their trajectory before reaching the target, thereby confusing the enemy’s defense system. These are Pakistan’s most advanced missile systems, which continue to undergo gradual upgrades.

The U.S. State Department has imposed sanctions on several companies, including Chinese research institutes and Pakistani entities, claiming they are involved in supplying equipment and technology for Pakistan’s ballistic missile program. Pakistan, however, has labelled this U.S. action as “political” and “biased.”

State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller, in a press briefing on 12 September 2024, stated, “The United States is committed to strengthening the international non-proliferation regime by taking action against networks involved in the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. U.S. concerns regarding Pakistan’s long-range ballistic missile program have been ‘clear and consistent’ for several years.” Under the Arms Export Control Act (AECA) and the Export Control Reform Act (ECRA), the U.S. has imposed sanctions on three Chinese institutions, a Chinese individual, and one Pakistani entity due to their involvement in ballistic missile proliferation activities. The Pakistani entity, the National Development Complex (NDC), has been acquiring equipment for testing rocket motors for Shaheen III and Ababeel missile systems and possibly larger systems from Beijing’s Research Institute of Automation for Machine Building (RIAMB). Other Chinese companies, including Hubei Huachangda Intelligent Equipment, Universal Enterprise, Xi’an Longde Technology Development, and Pakistani company Innovative Equipment, are also on the sanctions list. The Chinese individual affected by the sanctions is Lu Dongyi.

According to the State Department, the U.S. opposition to Pakistan’s ballistic missile program has long been a part of its policy, even though Pakistan has been a long-term partner of the United States. However, differences remain between the two nations on certain matters. “Where we have disagreements, we will not hesitate to act on them in the interest of our national security,” said the spokesperson. Historically, the U.S. has used such allegations to exert pressure for its own interests, and it continues to support its new regional ally, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, by providing extensive technology, components, and all the privileges of the civil nuclear club, highlighting the U.S.’s double standards.

The world is aware that India and Israel, which claim strict adherence to non-proliferation principles, have repeatedly ignored licensing conditions under the U.S. watch in the provision of advanced military technologies. Such double standards and discriminatory practices harm the credibility of governments working against global proliferation, increase military imbalances, and threaten international peace and security.

Earlier this year, in April, the U.S. imposed similar sanctions on three Chinese and one Belarusian company. In October 2023, the U.S. also sanctioned three more Chinese companies accused of supplying parts and equipment for Pakistan’s ballistic missile program. Additionally, in December 2021, the U.S. administration-imposed sanctions on 13 Pakistani companies on 26 November 2021, accusing them of assisting Pakistan’s nuclear and missile programs.

The Pakistani missile program currently targeted by these recent U.S. sanctions includes the medium-range ballistic missiles Shaheen III and Ababeel, both of which are classified as MIRV missiles. Global experts believe that these missiles are the most advanced in Pakistan’s arsenal. Pakistan first tested the Ababeel missile in 2017 and, on 18 October 2023, successfully tested a new variant of the medium-range, surface-to-surface Ababeel missile. This missile was showcased for the first time during Pakistan Day Parade on 23 March 2024.

According to the Australian National University’s Strategic and Defence Studies Centre in Canberra, Ababeel is the first missile in South Asia capable of carrying multiple warheads or nuclear weapons over a range of 2,200 kilometers, and it can target multiple objectives. Defense experts note that Ababeel can carry three or more nuclear warheads. This MIRV system is designed to defeat and neutralize enemy ballistic missile defense (BMD) shields. Each warhead within the missile can strike more than one target. Moreover, the significant aspect of this missile is its capability to launch a first or second strike against high-value targets protected by ballistic missile defense shields.

The unique feature of an MIRV (Multiple Independently Targetable Re-entry Vehicle) missile is that it can confuse an enemy’s missile defence shield or ballistic missile system when approaching the target, similar to how a fast bowler swings the ball to break the batsman’s defence by relying on speed, swing, and seam. An MIRV missile contains multiple warheads, each independently programmed and directed towards different targets, with each warhead following a separate flight path.

India has been working on ballistic missile systems for over a decade, conducting tests and publicly discussing them. Recently, India tested its first MIRV missile, Agni-V, with multiple warheads. This intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) has a range of at least 5,000-8,000 kilometres. Additionally, India’s “Agni-P” is also an MIRV with a range of up to 2,000 kilometres, while Pakistan’s Ababeel missile has a range of only 2,200 kilometres, making it the lowest-range MIRV in the world. However, the U.S. views Pakistan’s development of such missiles for its defence as a violation, despite the fact that Ababeel is specifically designed to counter India. The U.S. has expressed concerns about Pakistan’s Shaheen-III missile, which has a range of 2,740 kilometres, since 2021.

In fact, Ababeel is the next generation of the Shaheen-III missile. During the testing of Shaheen-III, Lieutenant General (R) Khalid Ahmed Kidwai, an advisor to the National Command Authority, stated that “this missile is designed solely to counter India, with the purpose of targeting strategic sites in India (specifically the Andaman and Nicobar Islands and areas in the east where nuclear submarine bases are being constructed), ensuring that India has no place to hide or operate with the misconception that there are locations in India where it can hide its systems for a counterstrike or first strike and remain untargeted by Pakistan.”

India’s Defence Minister Rajnath Singh and other Indian officials have frequently indicated that “India has acquired the capability to carry out pre-emptive strikes against Pakistan.” The supersonic BrahMos missile, which can be equipped with nuclear warheads, is among several systems India is developing to launch first strikes from land, air, and sea. It is noteworthy that in 2022, a BrahMos missile accidentally landed in Pakistan, and India’s Ministry of Defence claimed it was unintentionally fired into Pakistani territory. Thus, it is entirely possible that “India may use BrahMos in a conventional counterforce (first) strike against Pakistan’s strategic forces and command-and-control centres, claiming it as a conventional attack, but Pakistan would treat it as the first nuclear strike.” Therefore, it is crucial that Pakistan remains fully prepared to deter any such attack, which is why Pakistan continues to showcase its capabilities with nuclear warhead missiles like Shaheen-III and Ababeel.

The question arises: why is the U.S. concerned about these missiles? According to the U.S. State Department, “RIAMB has collaborated with Pakistan for testing and acquiring equipment for rocket motors with diameters for Shaheen-III and Ababeel missile systems, and possibly even larger systems.” The phrase “possibly even larger systems” implies that Pakistan may be working on the next generation of these missiles. Ababeel was first tested in January 2017, and its second test took place six years later in October 2023. During these six years, continuous work on this technology has taken place at NDC (National Development Complex). The U.S. believes that while Shaheen-III was already operational, the second test of Ababeel and its public display in March signals that Pakistan has reached a stage where research and development are complete, and Ababeel is now operational. The core concern for the U.S. is that Pakistan is potentially working on an enhanced version with more advanced capabilities.

Another U.S. concern revolves around Ababeel being a three-stage missile system and its mobile launcher, which provides significant strategic advantages. In the event of a surprise attack, these systems can be easily camouflaged and relocated to secret locations, making them hard to detect. Experts believe that any three-stage missile system could form the foundation for long-range systems.

The six-year gap between Ababeel’s first and second tests indicates that Pakistan is now locally developing this technology. The U.S. contends that if Pakistan were acquiring all technology from China, why would there be such a long wait? Undoubtedly, there has been some new development in this system, prompting increased U.S. concern that Pakistan may be acquiring more capabilities, possibly enabling future versions of these nuclear missiles to carry larger warheads. Ababeel might even achieve the capacity to carry more than three warheads. Notably, in April, sanctions were imposed on mobile launchers for these systems. The U.S. fact sheet stated that the Minsk Wheel Tractor Plant in Belarus had supplied chassis for special vehicles used in Pakistan’s ballistic missile programme.

The U.S. sanctions also mention powerful rocket motors, indicating concerns beyond the extended range of Ababeel, such as Pakistan’s space programme. In April, the U.S. fact sheet accused China’s Grand peak Technology Limited of collaborating with Pakistan’s space agency, SUPARCO, in providing equipment for rocket motor testing, as well as supplying components for large rocket motors. The U.S. fears that Pakistan may develop its own domestic space launch vehicle (SLV), a technology vital for achieving nuclear deterrence by enabling precise targeting and surveillance capabilities. Through this, Pakistan could launch its intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) and secure both military and civilian objectives via its space launch programme, aligned with its 2047 Space Vision.

The recent sanctions are not a new development; they are part of a longstanding trend that dates back to the 1970s, when Pakistan began its missile programme in response to India’s, which was aided by Russia and other sources. Additionally, Pakistan has always maintained close ties with China. The sanctions imposed on companies and individuals from China and Pakistan will have little impact on either country, as Pakistan’s National Development Complex (NDC) does not rely on the West for missile technologies. Therefore, these sanctions will not affect it. North Korea serves as an example, having faced numerous sanctions without being hindered, whereas Pakistan’s missile programme is entirely indigenous, reliant on local resources and expertise, and will remain unaffected by American sanctions.

Such actions by the United States are regrettable, and the most important point is that they disregard regional strategic realities, such as the defence and security needs of Pakistan and the growing intercontinental range of Indian missiles, which pose increasing threats to regional and global peace, security, and stability. The US State Department’s statement also mentioned the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR), a group of countries that regulate the export of missile technology. Neither Pakistan nor China has signed the MTCR, yet both nations respect its stipulations and have not exported any systems with a range exceeding 300 kilometres. However, instead of acknowledging this, it is stated that Pakistan and China are collaborating.

If the concern is about their cooperation, then it must be noted that India’s entire missile programme has been developed with the cooperation and assistance of Russia, and now the US and its allies, notably Israel, are openly supporting it. An example of this is the BrahMos missile, initially developed using Russian technology with a range of 290 kilometres, but India has now extended this range to 800 kilometres. Israel is also assisting India in developing its hypersonic version, yet no one raises the issue of MTCR here.

It is worth remembering that the MTCR prohibits the export of missiles with a range exceeding 300 kilometres and warheads over 500 kilograms. At present, India’s Agni-V missile, with a range of 5,000-8,000 kilometres, has the capacity to carry three to five, or possibly more, warheads. India is also developing versions of this missile to be mounted on nuclear submarines, whereas Pakistan does not even possess a nuclear submarine. Pakistan’s efforts are aimed at maintaining strategic stability in South Asia. Instead of acknowledging Pakistan’s restraint, the imposition of sanctions tarnishes the image of the United States.

The technology Pakistan has developed in response to India’s missile capabilities should not pose an issue for the US. However, the real issue is that, for America, India is the most important member of the “Quad”. India has managed to integrate its people into every think tank in the West with the help of the US and other Western countries, influencing public opinion and government policies in these countries. It is important to note that the “Quad” is a group consisting of four countries: India, Australia, Japan, and the United States. The US has various geostrategic interests at play in international locations such as Ukraine-Russia, the Middle East, and the Taiwan-China situation, and as a result, it has made different promises to various countries. To counter China’s influence in the South Asian region, the “Quad” was formed.

The tension with China is also a major reason behind the sanctions on Pakistan’s missile programme. The focus of the US sanctions is primarily on Chinese companies rather than Pakistan, with the aim of pressuring Beijing economically. Will the “Triad” (USA, Israel, India) succeed in this? The ground realities in this region have already sent a clear message of America’s waning influence.