Who is the next superpower?

China’s rapid growth has caused a stir around the world. Along with America and Europe, Russia and other regional countries have also become a matter of concern. Seeing the rising graph of China’s development, Russia has also thought of doing something and has decided to do a lot in this regard. Russia has been a superpower and aspires to become a superpower once again. Since the end of the Cold War, Russia has not had an opportunity to emerge that it can take advantage of to an extraordinary degree. The fact is that the Russian leadership has been looking for a higher role for itself at the regional and global level and now seems to be somewhat satisfied with this. What China has done with regard to the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has proven to be a source of concern for the US and Europe, but Russia has found itself in a better position. It seems that the Russian leadership has now decided to go along with China and show off.

On the other hand, China has decided to shamelessly interpret the dream of the new economic Silk Road in the form of RI. Why should Russia not think about it? He also wants a new regional and global role for himself. That is why he is in a mood to do something with China. It has become inevitable for Russia to play a new and meaningful role in the development and security of East Asia and Eurasia. On several occasions, the Russian leadership has given the Chinese leadership an official and unannounced message that it will have to make some reforms in terms of the program for the entire region in one battle so that even a big country like Russia can be served well. It has also become necessary for China that the plans should be comprehensive in all respects, that is, there should be no gaps in them that make any power in the region feel worse or feel that opportunities are not being created for it to move forward. China has also decided to quietly benefit from US growth.

Chinese President Xi Jinping announced China’s grand BRI project in Kazakhstan in 2013, and much has changed since then. Several Chinese projects are under construction in Malaysia and Pakistan and beyond to Africa. Many projects have been completed. In this regard, the market of complaints is also hot. A major complaint about China is that it does not care much about the interests of partner countries in any project, leading to growing complaints, raising the bar for reservations. China’s program to economically unify the entire region was initially unusually vague. Now a number of think tanks have emerged in China, which are advising the government on various issues. These think tanks are working to ensure an environment that minimizes difficulties for China and maximizes participant happiness.

There is no hesitation in acknowledging the fact that the project launched by China is one of the few major and positive efforts to move the world away from the debt model. The United States and Europe jointly promoted the International Monetary Fund (IMF). It is to be hoped that China, if it moves to establish an international financial institution, will not do anything like the IMF has been doing. The IMF has trapped the underdeveloped countries in debt trap. Russia has recently encouraged the states of Northeast Asia to do something with the platform of the Asian Organization.

What the US intelligence agency CIA did with regard to Ukraine on former US Vice President Joe Biden’s Emma, ​​caused a change in Russia’s thinking about the US and Europe. Former US President Barack Obama asked the European Union to impose sanctions on Russia on the issue of Ukraine. This process has led Russia to seek protection in various respects. In such a situation, Russia had to start looking elsewhere for its options. Russia adopted a policy of looking west in many respects. Now these policies are being revised. In such a situation, it was quite natural for Russia to look to China, the biggest power in the region (Eurasia) in political, economic and military matters, and it did so.

It can be said that the Russian leadership is heavily dependent on China in most cases, which may lead to a time when it may not be possible for it to live without China. In some areas, both the countries have created a good scope for working together. It can be felt that Russia wants to make a place for itself, but at the same time, it is also taking care that it does not lose the same status compared to China, which it has compared to the United States during two and a half decades. Britain has been!

In November 2018, a meeting of APEC member countries was held in Papua New Guinea, in which Russian President Putin sent Prime Minister Medvedev. In this meeting, Chinese President Xi Jinping met US Vice President Pence. Putin himself felt it necessary to attend the ASEAN Summit in Singapore. Members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) include Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, Laos, the Philippines, Cambodia, Indonesia, Singapore, Thailand and Myanmar (Burma). The meeting discussed how to maximize trade and investment between the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and ASEAN. The point of establishing a greater partnership of Eurasian countries on the model of Shanghai Cooperation Organization was also considered to accelerate the development process in the region.

Russia is by no means as strong as China, but based on its geographical opportunities, it has the potential to play a role as a wider link between Asia and Europe, as well as to engage the countries of the region in a larger economic battle. keeps In areas where there are historical reservations about China, Russia’s role may prove to be important. If you look at the map, you will get an idea of ​​how many countries Russia is connected to base on the wider geographical reality. On the basis of extraordinary strategic importance, Russia can increase the value of many countries by establishing broad-based partnerships with many countries, not only politically and economically, but also militarily.

A memorandum of understanding was also signed at the Singapore summit, which will boost trade and investment. At the same time, it is worth noting that ASEAN for the first time declared its relationship with Russia as a “strategic partnership”. According to the memorandum of understanding signed, Russia will give special attention to various sectors to maximize trade and investment in the region. Customs duty matters will be reformed. Russia is seeking greater cooperation in IT and a few other areas. At the same time, the Russian leadership will also be part of a broader plan to establish smart cities in the region. The Russian President personally invited the heads of ASEAN member states to participate in the St. Petersburg Economic Forum and the Vladivostok Eastern Economic Forum in 2019.

Trade between the Russia-backed Eurasian Economic Union and ASEAN has grown by more than 60 percent since 2017, bringing the trade volume to $48 billion. The reality is that this volume of trade is a small fraction of the potential trade in the region. Among the ASEAN members, Vietnam and Russia have very good relations, both of which are growing stronger. During the Cold War, Russia helped Vietnam significantly in offshore oil exploration. The two countries signed a free trade agreement in 2015. Since this agreement, the volume of trade between the two countries has reached 8/billion dollars. And there is potential for further growth.

Trade between members of the Eurasian Economic Union and Vietnam continues to grow. Oil, fertilizer, steel and machinery are Vietnam’s key imports. Exports include phone parts, electronic equipment, computer apparel and software. Now that the trade agreement between Russia, the Eurasian Economic Union and ASEAN has been signed, Vietnam has gained extraordinary importance. It can play an important role in the supply of economic union products. This agreement is opening a market with a GDP of more or less 2200 billion dollars for the parties and bilateral trade will be 10 to 20 billion dollars by 2020 and up to 30 billion dollars by 2030. can reach

Russian President Putin also met with Malaysian President Mahathir Mohamad, Indonesian President Widodo, Japanese Prime Minister Abe, South Korean President Mujoy-in and the Prime Ministers of China and Thailand in Singapore. The Russian President spoke to Japanese Prime Minister Abe regarding the Murli Islands, while he discussed the issue of North Korea with South Korean President Moon Jae-in. Japanese Prime Minister Abe expressed his willingness to engage in broader negotiations to end the conflict that has been going on since 1945. A few months ago, Japan and Russia also conducted exercises to transport Japanese products to Russia through a sea corridor and the Trans-Siberian railway line. Russia’s 5,772-mile railway line has the potential to boost two-way trade to an extraordinary extent, says Toshihiro Mustomoto, the deputy minister of government land, communications, infrastructure and tourism. Trade between these two countries is being done by sea or by air. It takes approximately 62 days for Japanese products to reach Russia via the Indian Ocean. Air trade is very expensive. The opening of the new corridor will also reduce shipping time and cost by up to 40 percent.

In 2017, Russia and Japan agreed to establish a joint development fund to promote infrastructure under government auspices. If the issue of ownership of the Murli Islands is resolved, this fund will grow rapidly and both countries will move rapidly towards developing infrastructure more and more. Russia has also been motivated to expand its role in Southeast, South and Central Asia as China faces unprecedented pressure from the US over its “Made in China 2025” agenda. On the other hand, Japan, South Korea and India do not want to depend too much on America, China or any other country. Without offending China or any other country, Russia can very well play the role of a bridge between all the emerging powers in the region.

India has also paid special attention to improving relations with Russia. During the Cold War, India was leaning towards the Soviet Union. And the fact is that it has reaped great benefits from America and Europe as well. After the end of the Cold War and the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the Indian leadership did not attach much importance to Russia. Now the vested Hindu group feels that Russia should be looked after as it has largely resolved its problems and is in a position to play a wider regional and global role. The two countries have signed important agreements in civilian nuclear technology, missile technology and a few other important areas. Russia, the largest manufacturer of civilian nuclear reactors, will manufacture nuclear fuel assemblies in India. Russia has signed an agreement to supply four Karaoke-class frigates to India, out of which two frigates will be manufactured in India at a cost of $2.5 billion.

During a year, Russian President Putin and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi have met five times. Both the leaders are also ready to take bilateral relations to the level of 1950s. Russia’s attraction towards India is very important because the relations between the two countries have not been enviable during the last four or five years and during this time America has tried hard to keep India under its sphere of influence.

Over the past few months, Russia has tried to do a lot more than China. It is turning to Japan, South Korea, Vietnam and India, which suggests that the Russian leadership is aware of its growing power and wants it to be put to good use. The Great Eurasian Economic Partnership, which Putin announced in 2018, now after being elected as the President of Russia once again, he seems to be unusually serious and active in this regard. Putin also talked about establishing the Energy Super Ring, which would connect Russia, China, Japan and South Korea. The plan to connect Japan’s Jiraise Hokkaido and Russia’s Sakhalin Island through rail and road link is at the forefront. If this happens, there will be a revolution in trade and energy in the entire region. Of course, the United States will not sit quietly in response to the threats to its supremacy so easily, that is why the process of entanglement that has been started in the Ukraine war, has now started to be implemented in a new way. Yes, but will America once again succeed in making Ukraine a scapegoat like Pakistan and Afghanistan to maintain the honor of the world’s only superpower? It may not be possible now because the European people will no longer be willing to make financial and human sacrifices to make America the world’s only superpower.

Saturday 6 July 2024