Threats in the Middle East: The Impact of Leaked American Documents

On October 1st, Iran launched approximately 200 ballistic missiles at Israel. According to the Israeli military, most of these missiles were intercepted and destroyed in mid-air, but some inevitably reached their targets. For now, Israel is keeping the extent of the damage caused by this attack hidden from global media. It is worth remembering that earlier this year, in April, following an Israeli strike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus, Syria, Iran had responded by launching drones and missiles towards Israel. Since then, the U.S. has been working urgently to strengthen Israel’s security. The threat of further major conflict continues to loom over the region.

A few days ago, a Telegram channel called “Middle East Spectator” highlighted these threats by publishing some alleged secret U.S. documents. These documents revealed ongoing risks in the region, shedding light on how the U.S. has been assessing an Israeli plan to attack Iran. The channel claims that these documents were provided by an official linked to U.S. intelligence. Speaking to the global media, U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson said that he had been briefed on the situation but could not share details at the moment. However, he confirmed that an investigation is underway to determine how these secret documents were leaked, calling the leak “deeply concerning.”

Previously, news agency Associated Press (AP) cited three unnamed U.S. officials who stated that the U.S. was investigating how two classified documents related to a potential Israeli attack on Iran had been leaked. Another U.S. official told AP that the documents appeared to be authentic. The documents, labelled “Top Secret,” are dated October 15th and 16th. The aforementioned Telegram channel is reportedly run from Tehran and covers news related to the “Axis of Resistance.” In the past, it has also published memes referring to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

The satellite images in these documents detail Israel’s preparations for an attack on Iran, showing that Israel is still moving military equipment to nearby bases in anticipation of such an operation. Israel also recently conducted a major military drill. These documents, prepared by U.S. Space Intelligence Agency and the U.S. National Security Agency, were intended to be shared with the “Five Eyes” intelligence alliance, comprising the U.S., the U.K., Canada, Australia, and New Zealand.

Following the Telegram leaks, U.S. media outlets also reported that an investigation is underway to find out how these documents were leaked, whether it was intentional or through hacking. Investigations of such matters typically fall under the purview of the FBI, the Department of Defense, and other U.S. security agencies. However, the FBI has not yet commented on the matter. According to the Associated Press, one of the leaked documents closely resembles another that was leaked about seven months ago through the U.S. Space Intelligence Agency, with an Air National Guard officer taking responsibility for that leak. The Pentagon has taken note of the reports on these documents but has refused to comment further. Additionally, the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) also declined AP’s request for comment.

Following Iran’s recent missile strikes, Israel has said that it will respond at an appropriate time based on its “national interests.” Last week, The Washington Post reported that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu plans to target only military sites, rather than Iran’s nuclear and military facilities. Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant also recently stated that when Israel does respond, it will be a “precise and lethal” operation, adding that Iran would not be able to predict it. In response, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warned that any attack on Iran would cross a “red line,” and Tehran would respond appropriately.

Iran’s Foreign Minister told Turkey’s NTV channel that Iran’s missile strikes on Israel specifically targeted military installations, and that these attacks were a response to Israel’s assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh. He also stated, “We have now identified all of our targets in Israel, and similar attacks will be carried out on them.” Iran has also warned the Gulf Arab states, some of which have diplomatic relations with Israel, not to allow their airspace to be used for any potential Israeli counter-attack. Any country aiding Israel in an attack on Iran would be considered a legitimate target for Iranian retaliation.

It is important to note that after the death of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, the U.S. has been urging Israel to move towards a ceasefire in Gaza. The U.S. has also warned Israel not to expand military operations further into northern Lebanon, avoiding the risk of a wider regional war. However, Israeli leadership has repeatedly stressed that it will respond to Iran’s missile strikes. When asked by journalists in Berlin about when and how Israel would respond to Iran’s missile attacks, U.S. President Biden simply replied, “Yes,” without offering further details.

The critical point is that with the U.S. presidential election approaching, the White House would not welcome any attack on Iranian oil installations that could affect oil prices. Moreover, it has no desire to be dragged into another Middle Eastern war. However, regarding the leaked documents on the Telegram channel, National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby stated that President Joe Biden is “deeply concerned” about the leak. U.S. officials have yet to determine whether the documents were deliberately leaked or obtained through hacking.

Military analysts have pointed out that the headings used in the documents seem authentic, with similar wording seen in other previously leaked classified documents. The documents are marked “Top Secret” and “FGI,” meaning “Foreign Government Intelligence.” Apparently, these documents were meant to be shared with the “Five Eyes” intelligence alliance, consisting of the U.S., the UK, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand. The documents also contain code words like “TK,” or “Talent Keyhole,” referring to satellite-based signals and imagery intelligence.

The documents indicate that Israel is preparing to target specific locations in Iran. The report is based on intelligence gathered and analyzed by the U.S. Special Intelligence Agency on the 14th and 15th of October. The review frequently mentions two air-launched ballistic missiles, “Golden Horizon” and “Rocks.” The “Rocks” system is a long-range missile system developed by Israeli company Rafael, capable of targeting both above-ground and underground installations.

“Golden Horizon” refers to Israel’s Blue Sparrow missile system, which has a range of around 2,000 kilometres. This suggests that the Israeli Air Force is planning another attack on Iran similar to the one carried out on April 1st this year, but on a larger scale. This time, however, Israel is unlikely to use Jordanian airspace due to Iran’s earlier warning that any country allowing its airspace or bases to be used for an Israeli attack would be considered a target by Iran.

The leaked documents also suggest that Israel is not preparing any nuclear option to deter further Iranian attacks. At Israel’s request, U.S. administrations have never officially acknowledged that Israel possesses nuclear weapons. The mention of nuclear weapons in these documents could be an embarrassment for the U.S. The documents do not specify when or which Iranian targets Israel might strike. However, it is noteworthy that the U.S. has opposed Israel targeting Iran’s nuclear or oil installations. This leaves the Revolutionary Guard military bases, associated personnel, and the Basij forces, which are active both inside and outside Iran in quelling resistance.

As for an Israeli attack on Iran, many believed that Israel would have acted by now, but in April this year, Iran waited 12 days before responding to Israeli strikes. Previously, Israel had targeted an Iranian diplomatic building in Damascus, killing seven members of the Revolutionary Guard.

The delay in Israel’s attack on Iran could also be due to U.S. concerns. The U.S. does not want tensions to escalate in the region ahead of its presidential election. However, given how both presidential candidates have openly supported Israel during their campaigns and celebrated the killing of Yahya Sinwar, leader of Hamas, it seems unlikely that Israel will act before the U.S. election. Nevertheless, Netanyahu’s past behaviour suggests otherwise.

It is possible that the documents were leaked by someone attempting to thwart Israel’s plans to attack Iran. Iran possesses significant cyber warfare capabilities, raising questions about whether this leak was the result of hacking. If the documents are genuine, it also suggests that despite being close defence allies, the U.S. continues to spy on Israel.

The documents also reveal that the Israeli Air Force is preparing for a long-range strike against Iran, with readiness to counter any potential Iranian retaliation. In short, when Israel acts on its plans, the Middle East could once again experience significant tension, the repercussions of which the world may have to endure.

Since 2002, military and technical cooperation between Tehran and Moscow, which began during the Ukraine war, is now visibly linked to the potential Iran-Israel conflict. Iran has previously supplied Russia with small shipments of drones and other weapons, which the Russian military has used in its offensive against Ukraine. With rising tensions in the region, this military and technical cooperation could reach new heights. For instance, Russia could sell Iran some Sukhoi-35 (Flanker) fighter jets. These jets were originally manufactured for Egypt, but the deal between the two countries never materialised. Iran has expressed interest in purchasing these combat aircraft.

If Iran acquires these fighter jets, it will become significantly more challenging for any country to carry out air operations against it. Currently, the Iranian Air Force has only a few dozen combat aircraft, most of which are outdated Russian and American models from before the 1979 Islamic Revolution.

The Sukhoi Su-35 is one of the most advanced aircraft in the Russian Air Force. It is a large supersonic fighter, over 70 feet in length, and can weigh up to 35 tons when airborne. The jet is powered by two engines, each providing 31,000 pounds of thrust. Despite its heavy weight, the Su-35 can swiftly change direction in the blink of an eye.

In the spring of 2023, Iranian radio reported, citing an unnamed member of Iran’s delegation to the United Nations, that a deal for these combat jets had been finalised. However, since then, no official report from Iran has been released regarding the delivery of the planes.

At present, more than 20 such fighter jets are stationed at the airbase of the Komsomolsk-on-Amur aircraft factory in Russia. These jets can even be seen on Google Maps. Additionally, Russia could provide Iran with short-range missile systems like the Pantsir-S1 air defence system. This system would help protect long-range defence systems and other critical targets from Israeli missile strikes.

According to classified American documents, in 2023, Russia’s Wagner Group, a private military contractor, planned to transfer this system to Hezbollah or Iran. At the time, John Kirby, the spokesperson for the US National Security Council, announced that the US was “prepared to impose anti-terrorism sanctions on Russian individuals and entities” if such an operation took place. However, no reports have since surfaced about the plan being carried out.

On the other hand, Iran might supply Russia with operational tactical or short-range ballistic missiles. Adding such missiles to Russia’s arsenal could significantly impact the current state of the war in Ukraine. In the event of a war with Israel, a country about 1,000 kilometres away from Iran, the latter would require medium-range missiles. Meanwhile, Russia needs tactical or short-range missiles with a range of less than 500 kilometres. Therefore, transferring such equipment to Russia would not compromise Iran’s ability to strike Israel.

This issue has become so severe that it has further strained diplomatic relations between Moscow and Washington. In early September, US President Joe Biden considered allowing Ukraine to use American missiles against targets inside Russia. At the time, the US, France, Germany, and the UK officially accused Iran of supplying ballistic missiles to Russia. According to media reports, these missiles had already reached Russia, though the world is not unaware of the hypocrisy in these accusations, given that these countries provide far more dangerous weapons to Israel.

While Kyiv has not yet been granted permission to use Western weapons against targets inside Russia, Moscow has also denied using Iranian missiles in Ukraine. Iran has officially denied sending such missiles to Russia. The potential sale of fighter jets and ballistic missiles represents some of the largest arms deals leaked to the media, but nothing definitive can be said yet. However, the possibility of such transactions reflects the high level of military and technical cooperation between Iran and Russia, which is already influencing the region.

This cooperation also affects Israel’s interests. Although relations between Russia and Israel are not as strained as those between Russia and other Western countries, they are not particularly close either. Meanwhile, despite repeated requests, Israel has not yet provided Ukraine with lethal weapons—at least not publicly. Ukraine is particularly interested in Israel’s effective air defence systems, such as the Iron Dome. As tensions continue to rise in the Middle East, the Ukraine issue is becoming an increasingly nightmarish scenario for the US and its allies.

It appears that while Israel may eventually send such systems to Ukraine, they would come from its active military units. These systems are also ready for export, with two units currently stationed in the US, which could be sent to Ukraine if Israel agrees. So far, Israel has not provided significant military aid to Ukraine, limiting itself to humanitarian assistance. In February 2023, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that he was considering providing military aid to Ukraine but did not specify the type of aid. However, it seems that no decision has been made in this regard yet.

Relations between Israel and Russia have become more complex due to the simultaneous operations of their air forces in Syria. Their aircraft frequently fly close to one another, and they need to maintain constant coordination to avoid incidents like the downing of a Russian reconnaissance plane in 2018. Although the plane was mistakenly shot down by Syrian air defences, Russia claimed that Israeli jets were nearby and were the intended targets.

International relations in the Middle East are so intricate and interconnected that any major intervention could trigger a new chain of problems with other countries. However, it seems that Moscow and Tehran have tried to discuss all details to avoid escalating any conflict in the region.

On September 30, Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin visited Tehran. According to the Russian newspaper Vedomosti, the purpose of this visit was to review the full scope of cooperation between Russia and Iran, with a particular focus on large joint projects in the fields of transport, energy, industry, and agriculture. It remains unclear whether military technology was also discussed during this visit.