The Strategic Dynamics of Drones: India, Pakistan, and China

With Trump’s re-election and key appointments to his cabinet, it is becoming increasingly evident that his administration will once again intensify measures against China’s economic rise. This includes expanding trade restrictions and strengthening initiatives like the “Quad” alliance to counter China’s regional influence. Meanwhile, India, under Modi, is positioning itself as a key player in these dynamics, leveraging its geographical advantage to act as a “rented soldier” in this strategic confrontation. India has been indulging in a military buildup, amassing weaponry from across the globe in an effort to intimidate its neighbours.

A significant element of this buildup is India’s focus on expanding its arsenal of military drones. Pakistan, naturally, cannot remain a passive observer in this escalating competition. Both countries are acquiring and developing drone technology capable of surveillance, reconnaissance, and precision strikes without human pilots. This shift in military strategy underscores a significant transformation in how conflicts in South Asia are likely to unfold in the near future.

The Escalation of Drone Warfare in South Asia

The increasing deployment of drones by the three neighboring nuclear powers—Pakistan, India, and China—signals a dangerous trend that could exacerbate tensions in the region. The inclusion of drones in military operations has already altered the nature of warfare in South Asia. Future skirmishes or conflicts are expected to feature extensive drone use, significantly influencing their scale and outcome.

The widespread presence of drones for surveillance and intelligence gathering among these nations hints at a growing likelihood of confrontation. As spying and monitoring activities increase, so does the potential for mistrust and escalation.

Military Drone Capabilities: India and Pakistan

Military drones, particularly those used for reconnaissance and strikes, offer significant advantages. These unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) are capable of operating at high altitudes, remaining airborne for extended periods, and evading radar detection. They are particularly effective in observing troop movements, monitoring infrastructure, and targeting enemy installations.

According to defense analysts, military drones serve three primary purposes:

Surveillance: Monitoring enemy movements and activities.

Reconnaissance: Identifying the locations of enemy troops and weaponry.

Target Elimination: Identifying and neutralizing high-value targets.

While some drones are equipped to perform all three functions, others are specialized for specific roles. Both India and Pakistan have expanded their drone capabilities in recent years. Reports suggest that India could possess approximately 5,000 drones within the next four years, whereas Pakistan’s arsenal, though smaller, includes more advanced and diverse models—about 10 to 11 distinct variants.

India’s Drone Strategy and Acquisitions

India has aggressively pursued high-tech drones to enhance its military capabilities. During a visit to the United States in October, Prime Minister Modi finalized a $3.5 billion deal to procure 31 MQ-9B “Predator” drones. These high-altitude, long-endurance drones are among the most sophisticated available, capable of both surveillance and precision strikes. In addition, the deal includes $500 million worth of bombs and laser-guided missiles for these drones.

The Predator drones, each costing approximately ₹950 crore Indian Rupee, will be divided among the Indian Navy (15 units), Army, and Air Force (16 units split evenly). These drones are renowned for their effectiveness in conflict zones such as Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, and Somalia.

India has also acquired Israel’s “Heron” drones, which it now manufactures domestically under license from Israel Aerospace Industries. Following the 2020 border clashes with China in Ladakh, the importance of drones has surged in Indian military strategy, particularly for naval operations in the Indian Ocean, where China’s presence is increasingly prominent.

Pakistan’s Drone Capabilities

Pakistan, while possessing fewer drones than India, has focused on quality and technological sophistication. It has developed and deployed a range of advanced UAVs designed for reconnaissance and combat missions. The emphasis on indigenous development and collaboration with nations like China has allowed Pakistan to maintain a competitive edge in drone technology.

Implications for Regional Stability

The growing reliance on drones among South Asian powers points to a shift in military strategy, but it also raises serious concerns about regional stability. The potential for miscalculation and unintended escalation is high, as increased surveillance and spying can easily be misinterpreted as acts of aggression. Furthermore, the inclusion of drones in military arsenals lowers the threshold for initiating conflicts, as they enable strikes without the immediate risk of human casualties.

The introduction of advanced drones into the military doctrines of India, Pakistan, and China has transformed the nature of warfare in South Asia. While they enhance tactical capabilities, they also intensify the risks of conflict in a region already fraught with historical rivalries and nuclear tensions.

Analysing the Role of Drones in the Armed Forces of India and Pakistan

In the evolving landscape of modern warfare, drones have emerged as a pivotal factor in military strategies. Let us examine the inclusion of drones in the armed forces of India and Pakistan and their implications on regional security.

India’s Drone Program: The Inclusion of Swarm Drones

A significant advancement in India’s drone program is the integration of swarm drones. These Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) operate in large groups and are designed for complex missions. Swarm drones are a key component of India’s defence strategy, particularly in countering potential threats from Pakistan. Developed by India’s New Space Research and Technologies, these drones can neutralise enemy defence systems, destroy nuclear-launch platforms, and execute simultaneous strikes on multiple targets.

Drones, or UAVs, are relatively inexpensive, easy to operate, and possess capabilities that revolutionise conventional warfare strategies. While the drones used in the attack on Russia’s Khmeimim Airbase were basic in design, they symbolised a future where multiple drones, operating autonomously and with minimal human intervention, could coordinate attacks with exceptional speed and precision.

In military terminology, these advanced UAVs are referred to as “swarm drones.” They operate as a coordinated group, potentially involving 10, 100, or even thousands of drones, each functioning independently while maintaining synchronisation with the group. This allows them to execute missions effectively without constant human supervision. Sameer Joshi, the founder of a company manufacturing swarm drones for the Indian Air Force, asserts that “swarm drones are the future of warfare, and India is striving to become a key player in this domain.”

However, India’s drone capabilities, whether domestically produced or imported, are currently limited to low- and medium-altitude UAVs. For high-altitude drones with advanced capabilities, India relies on imports. Contracts have been signed to procure vertical and high-altitude drones capable of operating in extreme conditions, such as sub-zero temperatures in border regions. These drones, which have also been used for civilian purposes, including tracking militants in Kashmir, can remain airborne for extended periods and evade detection.

Pakistan’s Drone Program: A Blend of Indigenous and Imported Technology

On the other hand, Pakistan imports drones from Turkey and China and has also acquired UAVs from Germany and Italy. Pakistan’s arsenal includes advanced Turkish drones such as Bayraktar TB2 and Akinci, alongside Chinese models like Wing Loong II and CH-4. Additionally, Pakistan has developed its own drones, such as Burraq and Shahpar.

In 2022, Pakistan unveiled its flagship drone, Shahpar-II, capable of flying up to 1,000 Kilometre and targeting objectives using laser-guided missiles. Pakistan Ordnance Factories previously developed Ababeel, initially a surveillance drone later adapted for combat purposes. The latest

iteration, Shahpar-III, represents a significant leap forward with its advanced combat features. This medium-altitude UAV, equipped with state-of-the-art avionics and flight control systems, can remain operational for 30 hours and carry a payload of 1,650 kilograms. The Shahpar series reflects Pakistan’s commitment to strengthening its drone capabilities. Pakistan’s Global Industrial and Defence Solutions (GIDS) had earlier introduced Shahpar-I and II.

Pakistan’s Strategic Advantage in Drone Technology

Pakistan’s Air Force effectively integrates drones with conventional methods to target India’s advanced air defence systems, such as the S-400 and Prithvi systems. Global defence analysts rank Pakistan as the fourth-largest drone power in the world, acknowledging its advanced UAVs deployed across the air force, army, and navy. Indian defence experts have also recognised Pakistan’s superior drone capabilities, which continue to expand through indigenous innovation and international partnerships.

Experts note that Pakistan’s high-altitude drones can fly for up to 50 hours, operating beyond the reach of fighter jets. This provides Pakistan with a significant strategic and tactical advantage, enhancing its operational readiness and deterrence capabilities.

Drones: A New Challenge to South Asia’s Stability

The increasing reliance on advanced drones by South Asian militaries poses a significant threat to the region’s strategic stability. As drones become a central element of military planning, the potential for escalation and imbalance in traditional deterrence frameworks grows.

The ability of these UAVs to conduct targeted strikes on critical military assets, including nuclear facilities and arsenals, heightens the risks of catastrophic outcomes in the event of a conflict. The widespread integration of modern drones in South Asia’s militaries threatens to destabilise the already fragile military balance in the region.

Conclusion

The proliferation of drones in the armed forces of India and Pakistan underscores a paradigm shift in modern warfare. While drones offer unprecedented tactical advantages, their potential to disrupt regional stability and escalate conflicts cannot be ignored. In a nuclear-armed region like South Asia, the unchecked deployment of advanced drones could have devastating consequences, highlighting the urgent need for dialogue and restraint.

According to the editor of the military affairs journal Force, “The current drones are either guided from the ground or via satellite in the air. If the adversary possesses the capability to jam communications, they can render these drones ineffective, and Pakistan has this capability. This is similar to what happened during India’s Balakot strike when Pakistan had the ability to jam the Indian pilot’s communications system. Pakistan jammed the communication of the Indian warplanes, leading to the downing of both aircraft and the capture of the pilot. The very next day, Pakistan launched a declared counterattack, demonstrating its capabilities, which made India and its allies, particularly the United States, realise the true state of their ‘lame horse.'”

On the other hand, “China has advanced significantly in military technology. According to global defence analysts, Pakistan and China are collaborating on drone manufacturing technology. Pakistan now has substantial capabilities. Its air force has become significantly stronger, with China playing a major role in this progress. China has been working on military technology for the last 10-15 years. Since 5 August 2019, military cooperation between China and Pakistan has strengthened considerably, exemplified by the locally manufactured combat aircraft, the JF-17 Thunder, which has proven its worth globally. Pakistan has not only achieved self-reliance in this technology but has also entered agreements to sell it to other countries.”

The JF-17 Thunder Block III is a 4.5-generation multi-role fighter jet equipped with an Active Electronically Scanned Array (AESA) radar and long-range Beyond Visual Range (BVR) missiles. It is capable of performing various combat missions. Block III represents the most advanced model of the JF-17 series, helping the Pakistan Air Force maintain a balance of power amidst the evolving regional situation. Future versions of the JF-17 will include upgraded radars, new weapons, advanced missiles, and enhanced electronic warfare capabilities, reflecting continuous improvements from every perspective.

The nature of warfare is shifting from physical domains—land, sea, air, underwater, and space—to machines replacing human roles on a large scale. Different countries are at various stages of technological adaptation. Currently, drones are primarily controlled through communication links. This is not a mere drone race but a reflection of technological evolution in warfare. The world is now entering the era of drone warfare, which is both a present and future reality.

Drones have been extensively utilised in conflicts like the wars in Ukraine and Gaza. They are particularly effective in scenarios where the target lacks strong air defence systems. In places like Gaza, where air defence systems or armed air forces capable of countering drones are absent, drones have proven devastating.

However, in the context of countries like India and China, advanced drones in China’s arsenal would only be effective in areas with weak or non-existent air defences or fighter aircraft. Elsewhere, their effectiveness would be limited.

Pakistan, China, and India have robust air defence systems, including radars, command-and-control systems that manage airspace, and strong air forces. Even drones can intercept enemy drones. In such contexts, drones are primarily used for high-altitude reconnaissance, target surveillance, and acquiring crucial imagery of enemy positions.

In the past 8-10 years, the nature of warfare has changed, with drones becoming a key component. They can significantly impact traditional military platforms like tanks and artillery. Both India and Pakistan are focusing heavily on drone technology, with an escalating arms race evident. India’s warlike fervour, driven by Modi’s militaristic ambitions and the Brahminical Chanakya philosophy, seeks to dominate the region and intimidate its neighbours.

Remote-controlled warfare is likely to increase as technology continues to replace human roles with machines. However, there is no doubt that the growing use of military drones by India and Pakistan poses a “serious threat” due to the risk of “errors.” Both are nuclear-armed nations, and even an accidental drone intrusion over a nuclear facility could trigger catastrophic consequences, leading to a disaster of unimaginable proportions and the annihilation of humanity.