Trump and the Middle East: War, Peace, or Solution?

Kamala Harris, in an emotional announcement at her stronghold, Harvard University, conceded her defeat and congratulated Donald Trump on his victory in the presence of tearful supporters. Trump has thus become the second president in U.S. history to be elected twice in non-consecutive terms, the first being Grover Cleveland, who held office from 1885 to 1889 and then again from 1893 to 1897. However, questions remain about what Trump’s second term will look like: what will his foreign policy entail, and which unfinished projects might he aim to complete?

Alongside, a key question also arises: what are the prevailing concerns regarding Trump, and why? Answers to these questions may lie in clues from Trump’s first term, which could suggest how he might lead the U.S. this time. Analysts believe that President Trump will resume from where he left off in 2020. Expressing gratitude to his supporters in Florida, Trump reiterated his commitment, calling it a political victory that made him the “47th President.” He renewed his campaign slogan, “Make America Great Again,” saying that this win will allow them to “make America great once again.”

Trump has also indicated plans to impose tariffs between 10% to 20% on most foreign goods, and up to 60% on imports from China. Many economists warn that such measures could significantly impact American consumers, who may face increased prices for goods. During his first term, Trump initiated a trade war with China, accusing it of unfair trade practices and intellectual property theft, though China’s swift responses hindered his efforts. In this term, the number of Republican and Democratic lawmakers in Congress will likely determine how successfully Trump can implement his policies as intended.

It’s noteworthy that from 2017-2019, Republicans controlled both the Senate and the House of Representatives, yet despite this majority, Trump faced challenges in passing his policies due to inexperience. Since Republicans have now gained control of both chambers of Congress, the Trump administration might introduce legislation for issues including border security, completion of the border wall, and tax relief. Additionally, Trump will likely seek Congressional support to pursue large-scale deportations of undocumented individuals.

According to estimates by the Pew Research Center, there were approximately 11 million undocumented immigrants in the U.S. in 2022, though Trump claimed this number was even higher. Experts warn that mass deportations would be both costly and difficult to execute and could have negative economic impacts on sectors where undocumented immigrants play crucial roles.

It is likely that Trump’s second term in foreign policy will resemble his first. He has expressed a desire to keep the U.S. away from international conflicts and claims he could end the Ukraine war “within hours” through negotiations with Russia. While he has positioned himself as a staunch ally of Israel, he has offered limited commentary on how he would address the ongoing conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon.

Martin Griffiths, a former Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator at the United Nations and an experienced conflict mediator, noted that Trump’s “America First” policy might deepen global instability and embolden Putin by leading to a full U.S. retreat from the region.

Currently, however, the war in the Middle East overshadows even the conflict in Ukraine, posing a severe threat t global peace. On October 7 last year, Hamas launched a desperate attack against what it described as Israel’s “perpetual oppression,” killing over 1,200 Israelis and taking hundreds of hostages to Gaza. In Israel’s retaliatory strikes, nearly 50,000 Palestinians have been killed and over 100,000 injured, with Gaza reduced to rubble. The flames of this conflict have now spread to Lebanon, Syria, and Iran, with no end in sight to Israel’s relentless aggression.

In May 2024, the Biden administration informed Congress of its plan to send over 84 billion rupees worth of weapons to Israel, a decision that was soon implemented. This package included tanks and ammunition worth $7 million. According to a report from the Watson Institute, the U.S. has provided approximately $18 billion in military aid to Israel since the onset of the Gaza conflict. As America continues its support for Israel amid the ongoing Gaza war, discontent has grown among Muslim voters in the United States, a sentiment that Trump has skillfully leveraged to his political advantage. During the campaign, both presidential candidates openly expressed strong support for Israel, with Trump even advising Israel to target Iran’s nuclear sites and destroy them.

Despite these statements, Trump also claimed on multiple occasions during his campaign that a significant number of Arab and Muslim Americans would vote for him. He argued that the Muslim community understood that Kamala Harris and her “war-hungry cabinet” would attack the Middle East, kill millions of Muslims, and trigger a third world war. On November 4, the day before voting, Trump posted on the social media platform “X” that “we are building the largest alliance in American political history. Michigan’s Arab and Muslim voters are with us because they want peace.” In closing, he appealed to all Arab and Muslim communities to support him in the upcoming presidential election so he could, as president, halt the wars and bring peace to the world.

Michigan is a pivotal state where Arab and Muslim votes can be decisive. Despite a close race in this major state with 15 electoral votes, Trump emerged victorious, demonstrating his success in winning over local voters with his promises and statements. Ahead of the election, Trump even visited a halal café in Dearborn, an area known as “America’s Arab capital” due to its strong Arab community presence. Similarly, during a rally in Michigan, a group of Muslim leaders endorsed Trump, expressing hope that his victory would bring peace to the Middle East.

A crucial question arises: Were the Muslim communities in America disappointed with the Democratic Party because of the Israeli attacks on Gaza and Lebanon, allowing Trump to capitalize on this discontent and return to the White House with a historic victory, ready to influence decisions in the U.S. and beyond over the next four years? It is clear that the Muslim world’s primary focus right now is “Palestine,” and their hopes, political concerns, and fears are all centered around this issue. Muslims and Arabs have not suddenly started liking Donald Trump; rather, they feel they have no other option, as their choices boiled down to Kamala Harris on one side and Donald Trump on the other. Disliking Kamala Harris and supporting Trump are two distinct issues. Protests across the U.S. after the Gaza war have shown frustration with the Biden administration’s silence and its support and aid for Israel. However, expectations of Trump in this regard should remain realistic, as he has previously shown strong support for Israel. During his first term, Trump controversially relocated the U.S. embassy to Jerusalem, a move that was met with international controversy yet popular in Israel. During Trump’s tenure, his Jewish son-in-law, Jared Kushner, played a role similar to a modern-day “Lawrence of Arabia,” fostering relationships with key Saudi officials and facilitating transformative shifts in the region, leading several Arab nations to recognize Israel and establish diplomatic ties, along with increased trade agreements. Saudi Arabia even granted Israel access to its airspace as a transit route. It was also expected that Saudi Arabia was on the brink of establishing formal diplomatic relations with Israel, which could have encouraged over a dozen other countries to follow suit, until the sudden eruption of the Gaza war put these developments on hold.

One must ask whether America’s Muslim and Arab voters truly believed in Trump’s promises or if they felt they had no alternative, which led to their support. In response to Trump’s victory, Netanyahu called it “the greatest success,” while the Israeli president hailed him as the “champion of peace,” and the Israeli opposition leader described him as a “true friend of Israel.” They expressed confidence that, as president, Trump would continue, if not increase, military and diplomatic support for Israel. However, opinions on Trump’s future policy regarding Israel remain divided. In his victory speech, Trump emphasized that he intends to “end ongoing wars and start no new ones.”

Israeli media reported that Trump had informed Netanyahu he wanted to end the conflict in the Middle East. However, one thing we know about Donald Trump is that predicting his decisions or actions is exceedingly difficult. It’s worth noting that in 2020, under American mediation, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain signed a historic agreement with Israel, known as the “Abraham Accords,” under which these Muslim countries recognised Israel’s existence. Talks were underway with other Muslim countries along similar lines, but this progress was interrupted by the end of Trump’s presidency.

Many diplomatic and political analysts believe that in Trump’s second term, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu might have greater freedom to take action against Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran. This raises the possibility of an Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear facilities. However, Trump could also potentially support a major deal in the Middle East involving both Saudi Arabia and Israel. Yet, Iran remains a significant player in the region, and US-Iran relations were tense during Trump’s previous term.

During Trump’s tenure, the United States withdrew from the nuclear deal with Iran, a deal brokered in 2015 under Barack Obama. The deal had lifted severe sanctions on Iran in exchange for halting its nuclear programme. But under Trump, the agreement was scrapped, and extensive sanctions were reimposed on Iran. It’s also true that Trump played a significant role in fostering new relationships between the Arab world and Israel. Under this agreement, Israel postponed its plan to annex large parts of the West Bank, and for the first time in nearly 50 years, diplomatic relations were established between Israel and the UAE—a significant achievement in itself.

Trump is both a politician and a businessman who tends to view matters in black-and-white terms. He doesn’t interfere in the internal politics, culture, sovereignty, or monarchies of Muslim countries. On the other hand, Democrats speak of imposing sanctions on Saudi Arabia, promoting human rights, and pushing for power-sharing—rhetoric Trump avoids, which appeals to Muslim leaders in the region. When Trump became president in 2016, he surprised many by choosing Saudi Arabia for his first official overseas visit. Most American presidents opt to visit either Canada or Mexico.

The reality, however, is that the Muslim world in the region is now largely weary of carrying the “Palestine” banner, as they realise that mere protest yields little. This issue also has an economic dimension, as the current era is one of economic prosperity. The Muslim world understands that its support for Palestine and opposition to Israel make it difficult to improve relations with Europe. The world is focused on climate change, investment, and the knowledge economy, while they are entangled in the Palestinian issue. The modern history of the Middle East has become a history of failed peace efforts.

Attempts at peace between Israel and the Palestinians began with the Oslo Accords in 1993. Decades of negotiations followed, but the region failed to achieve peace; Israel’s occupation of territories continued, and the establishment of two separate states did not materialise. However, after the October 2023 Israel-Gaza war, the Middle East has been irrevocably changed, and the pressing question now is whether Trump can fulfil the expectations many people, including his voters, have for him.

Arab voters in the United States believe Trump’s return could improve the odds of peace, though Israel and Hamas will play crucial roles in ending the war. If you recall, Trump had already declared his intentions to withdraw American troops from the Middle East and end the war in Afghanistan, demonstrating his stance against prolonged conflict. Reflecting on Trump’s previous term, it’s fair to say that he won’t simply mediate; rather, he will attempt to impose a solution. He recognises America’s immense power and is a forceful politician who doesn’t believe in delay tactics. Trump’s policies and foreign affairs are deeply rooted in his strong faith in American supremacy. If he chooses this path, it may harm Palestinians more than Israel, as solutions are generally imposed on the weaker party.